Heavy Rainfall Identification within the Framework of the LEXIS Project: The Italian Case Study

LEXIS (Large-scale EXecution for Industry and Society) H2020 project is currently developing an advanced system for Big Data analysis that takes advantage of interacting large-scale geographically-distributed HPC infrastructure and cloud services. More specifically, LEXIS Weather and Climate Large-Scale Pilot workflows ingest data coming from different sources, like global/regional weather models, conventional and unconventional meteorological observations, application models and socio-economic impact models, in order to provide enhanced meteorological information at the European scale. In the framework of LEXIS Weather and Climate Large-scale Pilot, CIMA Research Foundation is running a 7.5 km resolution WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model with European coverage, radar assimilation over the Italian area, and daily updates with 48 hours forecast. WRF data is then processed by ITHACA ERDS (Extreme Rainfall Detection System - http://erds.ithacaweb.org), an early warning system for the monitoring and forecasting of heavy rainfall events. The WRF model provides more detailed information compared to GFS (Global Forecast Systems) data, the most widely used source of rainfall forecasts, implemented in ERDS also. The entire WRF - ERDS workflow was applied to two of the most severe heavy rainfall events that affected Italy in 2020. The first case study is related to an intense rainfall event that affected Toscana during the afternoon and the evening of 4th June 2020. In this case, the Italian Civil Protection issued an orange alert for thunderstorms, on a scale from yellow (low) to orange (medium) to red (high). In several locations of the northern part of the Region more than 100 mm of rainfall were recorded in 3 hours, corresponding to an estimated return period equal to or greater than 200 years. As far as the 24-hours time interval concerns, instead, the estimated return period decreases to 10-50 years. Despite the slight underestimation, WRF model was able to properly forecast the spatial distribution of the rainfall pattern. In addition, thanks to WRF data, precise information about the locations that would be affected by the event were available in the early morning, several hours before the event affected these areas. The second case study is instead related to the heavy rainfall event that affected Palermo (Southern Italy) during the afternoon of 15th July 2020. According to SIAS (Servizio Informativo Agrometeorologico Siciliano) more than 130 mm of rain fell in about 2.5 hours, producing widespread damages due to urban flooding phenomena. The event was not properly forecasted by meteorological models operational at the time of the event, and the Italian Civil Protection did not issue an alert on that area (including Palermo). During that day, in fact, only a yellow alert for thunderstorms was issued on northern-central and western Sicily. Within LEXIS, no alert was issued using GFS data due to the severe underestimation of the amount of forecasted rainfall. Conversely, a WRF modelling experiment (three nested domain with 22.5, 7.5 and 2.5 km grid spacing, innermost over Italy) was executed, by assimilating the National radar reflectivity mosaic and in situ weather stations from the Italian Civil Protection Department, and it resulted in the prediction of a peak rainfall depth of about 35 mm in 1 hour and 55 mm in 3 hours, roughly 30 km far apart the actual affected area, thus values supportive at least a yellow alert over the Palermo area. Obtained results highlight how improved rainfall forecast, made available thanks to the use of HPC resources, significantly increases the capabilities of an operational early warning system in the extreme rainfall detection. Global-scale low-resolution rainfall forecasts like GFS one are in fact widely known as good sources of information for the identification of large-scale precipitation patterns but lack precision for local-scale applications

An Efficient Monte Carlo-based Probabilistic Time-Dependent Routing Calculation Targeting a Server-Side Car Navigation System

Incorporating speed probability distribution to the computation of the route planning in car navigation systems guarantees more accurate and precise responses. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dynamically selecting the number of samples used for the Monte Carlo simulation to solve the Probabilistic Time-Dependent Routing (PTDR) problem, thus improving the computation efficiency. The proposed method is used to determine in a proactive manner the number of simulations to be done to extract the travel-time estimation for each specific request while respecting an error threshold as output quality level. The methodology requires a reduced effort on the application development side. We adopted an aspect-oriented programming language (LARA) together with a flexible dynamic autotuning library (mARGOt) respectively to instrument the code and to take tuning decisions on the number of samples improving the execution efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive approach saves a large fraction of simulations (between 36% and 81%) with respect to a static approach while considering different traffic situations, paths and error requirements. Given the negligible runtime overhead of the proposed approach, it results in an execution-time speedup between 1.5x and 5.1x. This speedup is reflected at infrastructure-level in terms of a reduction of around 36% of the computing resources needed to support the whole navigation pipeline

Pegasus: Performance Engineering for Software Applications Targeting HPC Systems

Developing and optimizing software applications for high performance and energy efficiency is a very challenging task, even when considering a single target machine. For instance, optimizing for multicore-based computing systems requires in-depth knowledge about programming languages, application programming interfaces, compilers, performance tuning tools, and computer architecture and organization. Many of the tasks of performance engineering methodologies require manual efforts and the use of different tools not always part of an integrated toolchain. This paper presents Pegasus, a performance engineering approach supported by a framework that consists of a source-to-source compiler, controlled and guided by strategies programmed in a Domain-Specific Language, and an autotuner. Pegasus is a holistic and versatile approach spanning various decision layers composing the software stack, and exploiting the system capabilities and workloads effectively through the use of runtime autotuning. The Pegasus approach helps developers by automating tasks regarding the efficient implementation of software applications in multicore computing systems. These tasks focus on application analysis, profiling, code transformations, and the integration of runtime autotuning. Pegasus allows developers to program their strategies or to automatically apply existing strategies to software applications in order to ensure the compliance of non-functional requirements, such as performance and energy efficiency. We show how to apply Pegasus and demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness in a complex case study, which includes tasks from a smart navigation system

Constraining 2HDM by Present and Future Muon(g-2) Data

Constraints on the general 2HDM ("Model II") are obtained from the existing $(g-2)_{\mu}$ data including limits on Higgs bosons masses from LEP I data. We consider separately two cases: with a light scalar $h$ and with a light pseudoscalar $A$, assuming ${M_{h}+M_{A}} \ge {M_{Z}}$. The charged Higgs contribution is also included. It is found that already the present $(g-2)_{\mu}$ data improve limits obtained recently by ALEPH collaboration on \tb for the mass of the pseudoscalar below \mr 2 GeV. The improvement in the accuracy by factor 20 in the forthcoming E821 experiment may lead to more stringent, than provided by ALEPH group, limits up to $M_A\sim$ 30 GeV if the mass difference between $h$ and $A$ is $\sim M_Z$. Similar results should hold for a light scalar scenario as well.Comment: 19 pages, including 5 figure

Event-Related Potential Effects of Object Recognition depend on Attention and Part-Whole Configuration

The effects of spatial attention and part-whole configuration on recognition of repeated objects were investigated with behavioral and event-related potential (ERP) measures. Short-term repetition effects were measured for probe objects as a function of whether a preceding prime object was shown as an intact image or coarsely scrambled (split into two halves) and whether or not it had been attended during the prime display. In line with previous behavioral experiments, priming effects were observed from both intact and split primes for attended objects, but only from intact (repeated sameview) objects when they were unattended. These behavioral results were reflected in ERP waveforms at occipital–temporal locations as more negative-going deflections for repeated items in the time window between 220 and 300 ms after probe onset (N250r).Attended intact images showed generally more enhanced repetition effects than split ones. Unattended images showed repetition effects only when presented in an intact configuration, and this finding was limited to the right-hemisphere electrodes. Repetition effects in earlier (before 200 ms) time windows were limited to attended conditions at occipito-temporal sites during the N1, a component linked to the encoding of object structure, while repetition effects at central locations during the same time window (P150) were found for attended and unattended probes but only when repeated in the same intact configuration. The data indicate that view-generalization is mediated by a combination of analytic (part-based) representations and automatic view-dependent representations

Science with the Einstein Telescope: a comparison of different designs

The Einstein Telescope (ET), the European project for a third-generation gravitational-wave detector, has a reference configuration based on a triangular shape consisting of three nested detectors with 10 km arms, where in each arm there is a `xylophone' configuration made of an interferometer tuned toward high frequencies, and an interferometer tuned toward low frequencies and working at cryogenic temperature. Here, we examine the scientific perspectives under possible variations of this reference design. We perform a detailed evaluation of the science case for a single triangular geometry observatory, and we compare it with the results obtained for a network of two L-shaped detectors (either parallel or misaligned) located in Europe, considering different choices of arm-length for both the triangle and the 2L geometries. We also study how the science output changes in the absence of the low-frequency instrument, both for the triangle and the 2L configurations. We examine a broad class of simple `metrics' that quantify the science output, related to compact binary coalescences, multi-messenger astronomy and stochastic backgrounds, and we then examine the impact of different detector designs on a more specific set of scientific objectives.Comment: 197 pages, 72 figure

Progressive skin fibrosis is associated with a decline in lung function and worse survival in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.

Objectives To determine whether progressive skin fibrosis is associated with visceral organ progression and mortality during follow-up in patients with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Methods We evaluated patients from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research database with dcSSc, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7, valid mRSS at 12±3 months after baseline and ≥1 annual follow-up visit. Progressive skin fibrosis was defined as an increase in mRSS >5 and ≥25% from baseline to 12±3 months. Outcomes were pulmonary, cardiovascular and renal progression, and all-cause death. Associations between skin progression and outcomes were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression. Results Of 1021 included patients, 78 (7.6%) had progressive skin fibrosis (skin progressors). Median follow-up was 3.4 years. Survival analyses indicated that skin progressors had a significantly higher probability of FVC decline ≥10% (53.6% vs 34.4%; p<0.001) and all-cause death (15.4% vs 7.3%; p=0.003) than non-progressors. These significant associations were also found in subgroup analyses of patients with either low baseline mRSS (≤22/51) or short disease duration (≤15 months). In multivariable analyses, skin progression within 1 year was independently associated with FVC decline ≥10% (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.65) and all-cause death (HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.09). Conclusions Progressive skin fibrosis within 1 year is associated with decline in lung function and worse survival in dcSSc during follow-up. These results confirm mRSS as a surrogate marker in dcSSc, which will be helpful for cohort enrichment in future trials and risk stratification in clinical practice

Racial differences in systemic sclerosis disease presentation: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research group study

Objectives. Racial factors play a significant role in SSc. We evaluated differences in SSc presentations between white patients (WP), Asian patients (AP) and black patients (BP) and analysed the effects of geographical locations.Methods. SSc characteristics of patients from the EUSTAR cohort were cross-sectionally compared across racial groups using survival and multiple logistic regression analyses.Results. The study included 9162 WP, 341 AP and 181 BP. AP developed the first non-RP feature faster than WP but slower than BP. AP were less frequently anti-centromere (ACA; odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, P < 0.001) and more frequently anti-topoisomerase-I autoantibodies (ATA) positive (OR = 1.2, P = 0.068), while BP were less likely to be ACA and ATA positive than were WP [OR(ACA) = 0.3, P < 0.001; OR(ATA) = 0.5, P = 0.020]. AP had less often (OR = 0.7, P = 0.06) and BP more often (OR = 2.7, P < 0.001) diffuse skin involvement than had WP.AP and BP were more likely to have pulmonary hypertension [OR(AP) = 2.6, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.7, P = 0.03 vs WP] and a reduced forced vital capacity [OR(AP) = 2.5, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.4, P < 0.004] than were WP. AP more often had an impaired diffusing capacity of the lung than had BP and WP [OR(AP vs BP) = 1.9, P = 0.038; OR(AP vs WP) = 2.4, P < 0.001]. After RP onset, AP and BP had a higher hazard to die than had WP [hazard ratio (HR) (AP) = 1.6, P = 0.011; HR(BP) = 2.1, P < 0.001].Conclusion. Compared with WP, and mostly independent of geographical location, AP have a faster and earlier disease onset with high prevalences of ATA, pulmonary hypertension and forced vital capacity impairment and higher mortality. BP had the fastest disease onset, a high prevalence of diffuse skin involvement and nominally the highest mortality

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms